European Union leaders are hoping that Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election will end Viktor Orbán's blockades on Ukraine aid — blockades that have stalled a €90 billion loan package and fractured EU unity at a critical moment in the war. [1]

Orbán vetoed the Ukraine aid package on February 23, demanding that a pipeline carrying Russian oil through Ukraine to Hungary be repaired before any funds are released. [2] The veto drew condemnation from EU capitals, with leaders accusing Orbán of "blackmail" and "disloyalty" to European interests. [3]

Péter Magyar's Tisza party leads in most polls, but Hungary's electoral system — gerrymandered and weighted toward rural districts — favors Orbán's Fidesz party. [4] The Atlantic Council warns against counting Orbán out, noting that the opposition's polling lead does not guarantee a parliamentary majority.

The election matters beyond Hungary. Orbán has used his veto power repeatedly to extract concessions from Brussels, from rule-of-law disputes to migration policy. A Tisza victory would remove the EU's most obstructionist member at a moment when the bloc is trying to present a united front on the Iran war, Ukraine aid and energy policy.

Magyar has accused the Orbán government of "betraying Hungarian and European interests" over an alleged leak of EU-Russia negotiations to Moscow. [5] Whether he can translate that accusation into votes on April 12 will determine whether the EU's hopes are justified — or whether Orbán survives to block another day.

Five days to the election. The EU is watching. And Ukraine's €90 billion is waiting.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels