The national average price of regular gasoline reached $4.18 to $4.22 per gallon this week, according to AAA and GasBuddy tracking data. That is an increase of $1.01 — roughly 34 percent — in four weeks. It is the second-largest four-week price surge in American gasoline history, exceeded only by the spike following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. [1]

The math is simple and unforgiving. The war pushed gas past four dollars for real last week. It has not come back down. A household with two cars filling up weekly is paying roughly $35 more per week than it was in late February — $140 a month, $1,680 annualized. For a median-income family, that is grocery money. [2]

CNN reported Tuesday on Americans describing exactly those tradeoffs. A home health aide in Baton Rouge explained she now buys store-brand everything and has stopped purchasing fresh produce to keep her commute funded. A delivery driver in Phoenix said his per-mile cost has risen past the point where certain routes are profitable. A retired couple in Ohio described canceling a planned summer trip because the fuel estimate doubled.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 in its preliminary March reading, the lowest since November 2022. The decline was driven almost entirely by inflation expectations, which spiked to 4.9 percent — a direct reflection of what Americans see every time they pass a gas station sign.

If Brent crude stays above $105 per barrel — it closed at $96 on Tuesday and has traded above $100 intraday three times this month — analysts project the national average will reach $4.40 to $4.60 by the end of April. California, where state taxes add roughly a dollar per gallon, is already averaging $5.30. Several stations in Los Angeles County have posted prices above $6.

The political overlay is unavoidable. Gas prices are the most visible economic indicator in American life — more immediate than unemployment, more visceral than GDP. Every president since Nixon has understood this. The current administration released 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, a move that analysts estimate shaved roughly five cents off the national average. The strategic reserve is now at its lowest level since 1984.

The war in Iran was supposed to be an air campaign. Distant, precise, manageable. The gas pump has made it domestic. The price on the sign is the price of the war, updated daily, visible from the highway. No press briefing can compete with that.

-- Maya Calloway, New York