Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 average Brent crude forecast to $85 per barrel from $77, and its West Texas Intermediate forecast to $79 from $72, citing prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz as the "most significant supply shock since 1973" [1].

The headline numbers understate the near-term picture. Goldman's analysts, led by Daan Struyven, project March and April Brent prices averaging $110 per barrel, with peaks potentially higher if the Hormuz disruption extends beyond current assumptions [1]. The April forecast was separately revised from $85 to $115.

The base case assumes partial reopening of the strait within weeks. The tail risk assumes it does not reopen. Goldman's worst-case scenario for a prolonged closure: $150 per barrel [1].

Wood Mackenzie went further. The energy consultancy said "$200 a barrel is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026" if the blockade persists and Houthi threats to the Bab al-Mandab materialize simultaneously [2]. Saudi officials told the Wall Street Journal they privately model $180 in a full dual-strait closure scenario.

The forecasts are not predictions of what will happen. They are prices of what is already happening — a war that has taken 20 percent of global oil transit offline and shows no sign of resolving before Friday.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels