Goldman Sachs head of oil research Daan Struyven published the bank's war premium estimate at $25 to $32 per barrel earlier this month, representing the additional cost embedded in crude prices attributable solely to the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions [1].

That estimate, published when Brent was trading around $108, already looked conservative by Friday when Brent closed at $113. After Monday's events — Trump floating the seizure of Kharg Island, Spain closing airspace, and continued Hormuz shipping disruptions — the actual premium may be significantly higher.

The Goldman model accounts for volume disruption (Hormuz oil flows collapsed from 19.5 million barrels per day to roughly 0.5 million according to the bank's own data), insurance cost escalation, and route rerouting costs. What it may underweight is tail risk: the possibility that the conflict expands to directly target Iranian export infrastructure rather than just transit routes.

If the U.S. were to seize or disable Kharg Island — which handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports — the supply shock would be immediate and severe. Iran exports roughly 1.5 million barrels per day even under sanctions. Removing that entirely would tighten an already stressed global market further.

Goldman also projects Brent could reach $150 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, a figure that would push the global economy firmly into recession. Moody's has drawn the parallel explicitly: every U.S. recession since World War II, except Covid, was preceded by an oil spike.

The $25-32 estimate was the baseline. Monday suggested the market is moving toward the tail.

-- THEO KAPLAN, New York