Major shipping companies have begun rerouting vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz, adding 12 to 15 days to every voyage and $3 to $5 per barrel to the cost of Gulf crude. [1] The rerouting is not uniform — some companies with existing Hormuz transit contracts are continuing to negotiate access through the toll system — but the trend is clear and accelerating.

The paper reported today that 20,000 seafarers are stranded at sea as the Hormuz blockade continues.

Cape of Good Hope traffic has increased approximately 90% as a result of the Hormuz disruption. [2] The volume of shipping through the strait itself has collapsed by approximately 95% from pre-war levels. [3] These numbers are consistent with a functioning toll system rather than an outright closure: some ships are going through (those that pay, or those with state backing), and most are not.

The economic logic of the Cape route is straightforward for long-haul shipments: the added fuel cost, crew time, and insurance premium for an additional two weeks at sea are still less than the combined risk of mines, harassment, and the absence of salvage coverage in a war zone. [4] For short-haul regional shipping between Gulf ports, the calculation is different — the Cape route is not economically viable for intra-Gulf deliveries — and those vessels are either paying the toll, idling, or finding alternative routing through ports that avoid the strait entirely.

The 20,000 seafarers stranded aboard vessels near Hormuz are not on Cape-routed ships. [5] They are on vessels that are caught in the immediate vicinity of the strait — ships that attempted to transit, were turned back or attacked, and are now waiting for either clearance or instructions from their owners. The Cape rerouting does not resolve their situation. It bypasses it.

-- PRIYA SHARMA, Delhi