In February 2026, approximately 630,000 more American homeowners listed their properties for sale than there were active buyers searching for homes -- the widest gap in the history of Redfin's tracking data, which begins in 2013. [1] The imbalance has deepened every month since December 2025, when the gap first exceeded 45 percent. [2]

The consequences are visible in listing data. Fifty-two percent of homes currently on the market are classified as "stale" -- listed for more than 30 days without an accepted offer. [1] In markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Tampa -- cities that saw the most aggressive pandemic-era price appreciation -- stale inventory exceeds 60 percent. Sellers who bought between 2022 and 2024 at peak prices and peak mortgage rates face a narrowing window before their homes are worth less than they owe. [2]

Spring is traditionally when the U.S. housing market thaws. Families relocate before the school year. Rate-sensitive buyers rush in when mortgage rates dip. This year, neither catalyst has materialized. Thirty-year fixed rates remain above 7 percent, and the economic uncertainty generated by tariff escalation and energy price volatility has pushed prospective buyers to the sidelines. [1]

The supply side tells its own story. Many of the new listings are from homeowners who can no longer afford to wait -- job relocations, divorces, estate sales, and the slow unwinding of pandemic-era remote work arrangements that had kept people in place. They are selling into a market that is not buying.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco