The Houthis have threatened to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the narrow passage between Yemen and Djibouti that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden [1]. If executed, it would create a two-chokepoint blockade alongside the already-disrupted Strait of Hormuz — severing both ends of the maritime route that carries Gulf oil to Europe and Asia.

A Houthi military spokesman said the group is "considering all options in support of the Islamic Republic" but stopped short of announcing a closure [1]. The language is familiar. The Houthis spent 2024 and 2025 selectively targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, forcing most tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. A formal closure would escalate from selective harassment to total denial.

The numbers are stark. Roughly 12 percent of global trade passes through the Bab al-Mandab. Combined with the Hormuz disruption — through which 20 percent of the world's oil normally transits — a two-strait blockade would force virtually all Gulf energy exports onto longer routes, adding weeks to delivery times and billions in costs [2].

Shipping insurers have already priced in the risk. War-risk premiums for Red Sea transits rose another 15 percent on Wednesday. The Houthis have not yet acted. The threat alone is doing the work.

-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem