Kenya's strategic fuel reserves have fallen to 138,623 metric tons of super petrol -- approximately 16 days of national consumption -- and 207,841 metric tons of diesel, enough for 19 days, according to a Ministry of Energy report disclosed by Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi. [1] Jet fuel and kerosene reserves stand at 49 days, a buffer maintained in part because aviation demand has softened alongside the global travel contraction. [1]

The numbers are tight but not yet critical. A 290,000 metric ton shipment of mixed petroleum products is scheduled to arrive at Mombasa port during April, which would replenish reserves to roughly five to six weeks of coverage if consumption patterns hold steady. [2] The government has urged motorists not to panic-buy, a request that tends to accelerate exactly the behavior it seeks to prevent.

Kenya's vulnerability is structural. The country has no domestic refining capacity -- the Mombasa refinery closed in 2013 -- and depends entirely on imported refined products arriving through supply chains that now route around the Strait of Hormuz at significant additional cost and transit time. [1] Alternative supply routes through the Cape of Good Hope add two to three weeks to delivery schedules from Middle Eastern refineries.

The cabinet suspended excise duty and zero-rated VAT on petrol and diesel for three months to contain retail price increases, a fiscal intervention that Treasury estimates will cost 18 billion Kenyan shillings in forgone revenue. [2] The question is whether the April shipment arrives on schedule. If it does, Kenya buys another month. If it does not, 16 days is 16 days.

-- LUCIA VEGA, Sao Paulo