Dow Jones futures rose 317 points in overnight trading Tuesday. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.7 percent. The Nasdaq gained 0.9 percent. Asian markets moved even more aggressively: Japan's Nikkei rose 1.2 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.8 percent, and India's Sensex surged more than 1,100 points in its largest single-session gain in months. [1][2]

The catalyst was a report, first published by Axios and confirmed by CNBC, that the United States had delivered a 15-point peace plan to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries. President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran was "talking sense" and that negotiations were "moving in the right direction." [1]

The problem is that none of this has been confirmed by the other side. Iran's foreign ministry did not acknowledge receiving a plan. The Pakistani government issued a statement confirming only that it had "facilitated communication" between Washington and Tehran, without specifying the content. Axios described the plan as including a mutual ceasefire, withdrawal of U.S. naval assets from certain Gulf positions, and a framework for nuclear negotiations — but cited unnamed officials and provided no documentary evidence. [1][3]

This is the fourth time in three weeks that markets have rallied on peace signals from the Iran conflict. On March 9, stocks surged after Trump said the war was "nearly over." On March 14, oil dropped 8 percent on a New York Times report that Iran had made a "secret offer" to negotiate. On March 23, the Dow jumped 1,000 points after Trump claimed talks had been held. Each rally was followed by a reversal within 48 hours as the signals proved premature or unfounded. [2][3]

The pattern has a name on trading desks: the hope trade. Buy on the headline, sell on the reality. The problem for investors is that each successive hope trade has diminishing returns — the rallies are smaller, the reversals faster, and the underlying war continues to escalate between the headlines. [2]

Oil markets, typically more skeptical than equity markets, told a different story Tuesday. Brent crude dropped 3.2 percent to $102 per barrel on the peace plan report, but traders noted that the decline was modest compared to the surge that would be required to bring prices back to pre-war levels. A sustained ceasefire would need to reopen Hormuz, restart Gulf shipping, and rebuild insurance market confidence — a process measured in months, not headlines. [3]

The Sensex's 1,100-point rally in Mumbai reflected India's outsized exposure to Gulf energy disruption. India imports more than 80 percent of its oil, with a significant share transiting Hormuz. Any signal of de-escalation, however thin, produces a disproportionate reaction in Indian markets. [2]

Yahoo Finance's market wrap described Tuesday's session as "the triumph of hope over experience." The phrase is borrowed from Samuel Johnson's definition of second marriages, and the analogy is not far off. Markets want to believe the war will end. The war has not given them reason to.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels