West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $99.64 per barrel on Friday, up 5.46 percent on the day and 40 percent since the war began on February 28. The settlement is the highest since July 2022 and sits one dollar below the psychological $100 threshold that would mark the first triple-digit WTI close in nearly four years. [1]

The price surge reflects the Hormuz premium — the combination of physical supply disruption, minefield risk, and insurance costs that has turned the strait from a shipping lane into a toll road. Iran's selective access regime allows some vessels through while blocking others, creating a supply bottleneck that OPEC spare capacity cannot fully offset. [2]

The gap between WTI and Brent, which surged past $107 on March 26, now exceeds $20 — a spread that tells its own story. American consumers face $99 oil. European and Asian consumers face $107. The difference is domestic production, which insulates the US partially but not enough to prevent gas from approaching $4 per gallon nationally.

For consumers, $99 WTI translates to approximately $3.98 per gallon at the pump nationally — the highest since 2022 and rising. The war premium is no longer an abstraction traded on futures desks. It is the number on every gas station sign in America.

Friday's close all but guarantees $100 WTI on the next significant escalation. The Houthi attacks on Saturday may provide it.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels