Pakistan raised petrol prices to Rs458.40 per litre and diesel to Rs520.35 per litre on April 3 — increases of 42.7 percent and 54.9 percent respectively. It was the second hike in less than a month. The government's response was to announce free state-run public transport in Islamabad.[1]

Free buses for a city of 2 million cannot offset a 55 percent diesel increase for a country of 240 million.[2]

The price hikes came as global oil prices surged due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan imports roughly 80 percent of its oil needs. When Hormuz closes, Pakistan's economy bleeds. The rupee has depreciated, inflation has accelerated, and the government's IMF program — already under strain — faces a new test.[4]

The Numbers

Petrol: Rs321.16 to Rs458.40 — an increase of Rs137.24 per litre. Diesel: Rs335.86 to Rs520.35 — an increase of Rs184.49 per litre.

These are not abstract figures. Rs458 per litre means a full tank of petrol costs more than the monthly salary of a minimum-wage worker. Rs520 per litre means trucking freight costs have doubled, which means food prices have doubled, which means the families who can least afford it are paying the most.[5]

The Free Buses

The government's announcement of free public transport in Islamabad was framed as relief. It is, in fact, a recognition of crisis. When a government makes buses free, it is not being generous — it is acknowledging that its citizens cannot afford to move.

The free transport covers state-run buses in the capital only. It does not cover Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar or Quetta. It does not cover the truck drivers who carry Pakistan's freight. It does not cover the farmers who need diesel for irrigation. It covers the commuters of Islamabad — the city where the decision-makers live.[3]

The Iran Connection

Pakistan is one of the three mediators of the ceasefire proposal — alongside Egypt and Turkey. It is also one of the countries most exposed to the war's economic consequences. The irony is not lost on Pakistanis: their government is trying to broker peace while their economy is being destroyed by the absence of it.[6]

The price hikes were described by Finance Minister Miftah Ismail as "unavoidable." They are unavoidable because the global oil market has priced in a prolonged conflict, and Pakistan, as an importer, has no leverage. The free buses are a political gesture — a signal that the government sees the pain and is trying to do something about it. But free buses do not fill fuel tanks.

What Comes Next

The government has not ruled out a third hike. Global oil prices remain elevated, and Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves are under pressure. The IMF is watching. The streets are watching. And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Pakistan's fuel shock is not a Pakistani story. It is a war story — the story of what happens when a conflict between two countries becomes a crisis for dozens.

-- PRIYA SHARMA, Delhi