Michael O'Leary, a man who has never met a crisis he could not monetize, sounded genuinely worried. Europe's largest airline may cancel 5 to 10 percent of its summer flights if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into May, its chief executive told ITV News and later Fortune. [1] [2]

The arithmetic is blunt. Jet fuel at major hubs has nearly doubled since February, reaching $4.88 per gallon. [2] Ryanair estimates that 10 to 25 percent of its fuel supply could be at risk through May and June if the war continues, with the UK identified as the "most vulnerable" European market. [1]

"We will be trying to ground one or two aircraft and minimize the inconvenience for customers," O'Leary said, deploying the word "inconvenience" with characteristic understatement. "But it's going to be difficult." [2]

The cancellations would hit the airline's most constrained airports first, trimming frequencies rather than dropping routes entirely. O'Leary advised passengers to book immediately before fares rise further, though he insisted current pricing showed "no impact on fares" yet. [1]

Reuters reported that Ryanair sees the disruption beginning as early as May if the conflict does not end by mid-April, a timeline that now looks optimistic given the war's escalatory trajectory. [1]

-- CHARLES ASHFORD, London