The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,506.54, down 1.51 percent on the day and 1.89 percent for the week. It was the index's fourth consecutive weekly decline — the longest losing streak since 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 400 points to post the same four-week record. The Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 2 percent, approaching correction territory. [1]

The arithmetic is relentless. Since the S&P 500's January 27 peak, the index has shed approximately 6.8 percent. All gains for 2026 have been erased. The CME Group reported Friday that S&P 500 futures reached their lowest level since September 2025. JPMorgan cut its S&P 500 forecast, citing war-driven uncertainty and macro deterioration. [2]

The proximate causes are straightforward. Oil at $113 per barrel functions as a tax on the entire economy. The Iran war, now entering its fourth week with no diplomatic off-ramp visible, has transformed geopolitical risk from a background factor to the dominant driver of equity pricing. Friday's Diego Garcia missile strike added a new dimension — the demonstration that European targets are within Iranian range sent defense stocks higher and everything else lower.

The deeper concern is what four consecutive losing weeks signal about institutional confidence. One bad week is noise. Two is a pattern forming. Three raises questions. Four means the market has made a judgment about the trajectory of events, and the judgment is negative. Analysts at Charles Schwab noted Friday that the S&P 500 would have needed to close above 6,632 to avoid the fourth losing week. It missed by 126 points. That is not close.

Sunday evening futures were down another 0.3 percent heading into Asian trading. The fifth week begins the way the fourth ended.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels