The American Gaming Association projects that $3.3 billion will be legally wagered on March Madness this year. That figure represents a 54 percent increase from three years ago. It does not include the volume wagered on offshore platforms, in private bracket pools, or through prediction markets like Kalshi, which has spent 5.2 billion digital ad impressions in early 2026 alone — nearly double FanDuel's total. The tournament has become America's largest gambling event by a wide margin, and it is growing at a pace that makes regulation look like it is standing still. [1]

It is standing still. Two months before the first tip-off, federal prosecutors in Philadelphia announced criminal charges in a point-shaving scandal involving 39 current and former college players, six fixers, and 29 regular-season games across the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons. Players — mostly from low- and mid-major programs where Name, Image, and Likeness earnings are meager — allegedly accepted between $10,000 and $30,000 each to ensure their teams failed to cover the spread. The amounts are not large. They did not need to be. A player making nothing, or next to nothing, while generating millions in television revenue for his conference is exactly the person a fixer targets. [1]

The NCAA's response has been incremental. For the first time in 2026, all tournament teams must submit availability reports before each game — a measure designed to reduce the informational asymmetry that allows bettors with inside access to gain an edge. NCAA Managing Director of Enforcement Mark Hicks told the Associated Press that the organization monitors over 22,000 contests annually and that his "antenna is up all year-round." An antenna is not a solution. It is a posture. [1]

The real fight is over player prop bets — wagers on individual performance metrics like points, rebounds, and assists. The NCAA has pushed state regulators since 2023 to eliminate them, arguing that props create the most direct incentive for corruption. A player who is asked to score fewer than 15 points does not need to throw a game. He needs to miss a few shots. The manipulation is invisible in the box score and nearly impossible to detect on film. [1]

Four states — Louisiana, Maryland, Ohio, and Vermont — have already banned individual college athlete props. Kentucky, Minnesota, Colorado, and others are considering legislation. Washington recently expanded college betting access through tribal sportsbooks while prohibiting player prop markets. The patchwork is growing, but it is a patchwork, and the offshore books that operate outside any state's jurisdiction offer every prop imaginable. [1]

Sportsbook operators push back with a coherent argument: regulated markets are the best mechanism for detecting suspicious betting patterns. If you ban props on regulated platforms, you drive the action to unregulated ones where no one is watching. The argument is correct in its mechanics and convenient in its conclusion, because the sportsbooks make substantial revenue from the very prop markets they are defending. [1]

The players at the center of this debate are 18 to 23 years old. They are generating billions in television revenue, wagering volume, and advertising impressions. They are, in many cases, not earning enough from NIL to cover their rent. The Signify Group, which monitors social media abuse directed at athletes on behalf of the NCAA, reports that one in ten messages sent to men's tournament players in 2024 involved gambling. Big Ten Chief Medical Officer James Borchers told the AP that the "genie is out of the bottle."

Three point three billion dollars says the genie is not going back in.

-- AMARA OKONKWO, Lagos