April 2 marks one year since President Trump stood in the Rose Garden and declared "Liberation Day," imposing sweeping tariffs by executive order on virtually all imports [1]. The anniversary is trending on X, but the conversation has split into two distinct camps — and one of them is not talking.

Trade economists have flooded the platform with one-year scorecards. Oren Cass, the American Compass founder and tariff advocate, posted a ten-part thread claiming vindication: manufacturing investment grew, the trade deficit narrowed slightly, and the apocalyptic predictions of Larry Summers and others failed to materialize [2]. Scott Lincicome, a Cato Institute trade scholar, countered with data showing foreign direct investment in the U.S. actually declined and that most of the original tariff schedule was quietly rolled back within weeks of the announcement [3].

The Financial Times published what it called "a verdict that should be tattooed on the forehead of every populist trade advisor" — noting that the tariffs triggered a market plunge severe enough to force the administration into significant retreat [4].

What is absent from the conversation is equally telling. MAGA-aligned accounts that promoted Liberation Day as a watershed moment in 2025 have gone largely silent on the anniversary. The war in Iran has absorbed the oxygen. A tariff anniversary that was supposed to mark economic renewal now competes with $106 oil and a shipping crisis.

The divergence is the story: the economists are arguing over receipts while the political movement that created the moment has moved on.

-- Maya Calloway, New York