New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli released his annual estimate on Thursday: Wall Street's total bonus pool for 2025 reached a record $49.2 billion, up 9 percent from the prior year. Average bonuses climbed 6 percent to $246,900. The figures were driven by record pretax profits of $65.1 billion, up more than 30 percent from $49.9 billion in 2024. [1]

The AP reported the bonus surge was powered by strong trading activity and the fees that accompany a booming mergers-and-acquisitions market. [2] Fortune noted that while 2025 was a record, the outlook for 2026 bonuses may dim as the Iran conflict introduces war premiums into every asset class. [3]

The timing sharpens the contrast. The bonuses were earned in 2025, before the war began. They were announced in the same week that national gas prices approached $4, that oil held near $100, and that the Hormuz blockade entered its second month. The bonus pool represents one system's output. The gas price represents another. They are the same system.

Bloomberg reported the total pool included deferred bonuses from prior years that were newly cashed in, meaning the actual 2025 performance bonuses were somewhat lower than the headline figure. [4]

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco