TL;DR
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 average, implying a war premium of $25-32 per barrel that is now permanent for as long as the conflict lasts.
MSM Perspective
Reuters and Bloomberg covered the forecast revision as a standard analyst note; CNN connected it to the Hormuz supply shock more directly.
X Perspective
X's financial analysts note that Goldman's headline forecast of $85 average disguises the fact that spot prices above $100 require the war premium to persist through year-end to average down.
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 average Brent crude forecast to $85 per barrel from $77 on Sunday, March 23, citing the "largest-ever supply shock" from the Hormuz blockade. The revision implies that Goldman expects spot prices to remain well above $100 in the near term before moderating in the second half — but only if oil flows gradually recover starting in April. [1]
The war premium embedded in that forecast runs $25-32 per barrel above pre-war levels. Before February 28, Brent was trading near $72. The premium encompasses physical supply disruption, insurance costs, shipping rerouting, and the risk of further escalation. It is not a speculative markup. It reflects real barrels that are not reaching real refineries. [2]
Goldman still sees prices declining to the $70s by year-end — a projection that requires the war to wind down and Hormuz to reopen. Given that Iran said this week its retaliation will "no longer be proportional" and the Houthis just opened a third front, the assumption of second-half recovery looks optimistic.
The war premium is now built into every downstream price: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, fertilizer, plastics. At $25-32 per barrel, it adds roughly $1 per gallon at the pump — the difference between $3 gas and $4 gas.
-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco
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