The cyber insurance market entered 2026 in a soft cycle — premiums had fallen 11 percent even as attacks surged. [1] The Iran war ended that. Swiss Re projects global cyber premiums will reach $16.4 billion in 2026, up from $15.6 billion in 2025, with the conflict acting as the repricing catalyst insurers had been expecting. [2]

A GlobalData poll found that 27.4 percent of insurance professionals expect cyber coverage to record the biggest demand increase of any commercial line — ahead of property, marine, or political risk. [3] The paper reported Friday on the 700 percent spike in Iranian cyber operations targeting US infrastructure. S&P Global warned this week that larger, state-linked attacks could "severely test underwriting models" and trigger legal disputes over war-exclusion clauses. [4]

CybCube, the cyber risk analytics firm, advised carriers to anchor expectations in Iran's observed playbook: ransomware against hospitals and utilities, supply-chain compromises, and credential theft at scale. [5] The open question is whether policies written during the soft market will cover losses from what is, by any definition, a state-directed campaign. Many policyholders may discover the answer only after filing a claim.