Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps addressed the 2,500 US Marines deploying to the Middle East directly on March 21, warning of "unexpected retaliation" if American forces approach Iranian territory. [1] The IRGC's public statement, delivered during a televised military address, invoked the fate of "Roman legions slain on our soil" — a historical reference Tehran's commanders have used before, but never aimed at a specific unit deployment. [2]

The threat lands differently now. When this paper reported that Marines left California while the president said the war was almost over, the deployment was framed in Washington as a deterrent posture. The IRGC is framing it as an invasion force. The Middle East Monitor reported on March 16 that the Guard had already warned US-linked industries in the region to evacuate. [3] On March 22 — Nowruz, the Persian New Year — the IRGC struck five US bases across the Gulf, a timing that suggested the holiday was chosen for maximum symbolic force. [4]

The Marines are in transit. The IRGC says it is ready. The distance between deterrence and contact is measured in days, not weeks.

-- KATYA VOLKOV, Moscow