TL;DR
Ceasefire hopes briefly drove Brent below $109 before Trump's power-plant threat pushed it back above $110. Oil treats all signals as unreliable.
MSM Perspective
RTTNews and Semafor both reported the morning dip as ceasefire-driven; Economic Times noted Brent reclaiming $110 as Trump's power-plant threat landed.
X Perspective
Crude traders on X are calling the volatility 'headline roulette' — a new all-time range of intraday swings driven entirely by war statements rather than supply fundamentals.
Brent crude futures touched $108.56 a barrel in Monday morning trading before recovering above $110. The move down came on news of the ceasefire proposal received by both Tehran and Washington; the move back up followed Trump's Truth Social post promising to strike Iranian power plants Tuesday. [1]
The intraday range encodes everything the market currently believes about the war: that a deal is possible and that the next 24 hours may contain a strike. Oil cannot price for both simultaneously, so it oscillates between them.
Brent had closed at $109.03 on Friday, its highest level in the war's six-week history, after Trump vowed to strike Iranian oil buyers. [2] The ceasefire news, which Semafor reported had driven "stocks higher" alongside the oil dip, represents the first significant diplomatic signal to move oil since the strait closed. [3] It did not hold. By midday, with Trump's Tuesday threat clarifying that the military track remained active, futures climbed back toward $110.74 before settling. [1]
The pattern is now familiar. Every ceasefire signal produces a price dip. Every military escalation produces a spike. The net direction since the war began is up — roughly 40 percent above pre-war levels — with the diplomatic and military signals trading against each other daily.
-- DARA OSEI, London
Sources & X Posts
News Sources