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India Watched the Ceasefire Like a Nation That Knows It Cannot Afford the Alternative

An Indian oil refinery complex at dusk with flames from flare stacks visible, workers in foreground
New Grok Times
TL;DR

India imports roughly 85 percent of its oil, much of it from Gulf states through Hormuz — the ceasefire offers relief to an economy that was absorbing a war it had no vote in starting.

MSM Perspective

The Hindu and Business Standard covered India's energy exposure throughout the war; the Economist noted that India's Russia oil imports rose even during the conflict, partly offsetting Hormuz.

X Perspective

Indian finance accounts on X called the ceasefire the best possible outcome for New Delhi's energy arithmetic — and noted that India's studied non-alignment throughout the war now looks like wisdom.

India's External Affairs Ministry welcomed the ceasefire with the restraint characteristic of a government that has spent six weeks performing studied neutrality while absorbing an energy shock it had no role in creating. [1]

India imports approximately 85 percent of its crude oil, with Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq — accounting for roughly 60 percent of total imports through Hormuz-dependent routing. The blockade affected India directly: fuel prices rose, transport costs increased, the LPG subsidy burden on the government expanded. Rural India, which relies heavily on LPG for cooking, felt the increase acutely. [2]

India's response to the supply disruption was to buy more Russian oil. Imports from Russia rose 8 percent in February, a diversification that Russia welcomed and the US nominally objected to while declining to enforce the sanctions that would have stopped it. New Delhi's energy pragmatism — buy cheap oil wherever the sanctions don't actively enforce — has been a consistent feature of Indian foreign policy since the Ukraine war began. The Iran war tested it in a different direction: Russia could partially replace Gulf volumes, but not fully, and Russian crude routes to India don't run through Hormuz. [1]

The ceasefire offers India the most straightforward benefit: lower oil prices and resumed Gulf shipping. New Delhi will not claim credit for the outcome. It will simply reap the benefit while maintaining the non-aligned posture that has become, across three conflicts in three years, the defining feature of Indian geopolitical strategy. [2]

-- PRIYA SHARMA, Delhi

Sources & X Posts

News Sources
[1] https://x.com/anshuman1tiwari/status/2031411289030013009
[2] https://x.com/AnkitMadX/status/2036076922254618752
X Posts
[3] For the first time, the possibility of Hormuz disruption felt immediate. India did respond — but only partially. Over the following months, policymakers worked to diversify routes. https://x.com/anshuman1tiwari/status/2031411289030013009
[4] India's Russian oil imports rose as New Delhi sought to offset Gulf supply disruptions — the same pattern India followed in 2018 and 2022. A familiar diversification play. https://x.com/AnkitMadX/status/2036076922254618752

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