The ceasefire raised hopes among Mexico's striking truckers that fuel flows might resume. But hope is not diesel, and the Strait of Hormuz remains physically closed to most commercial shipping [1].

Mexican truckers have been idling for weeks. Fuel costs at elevated global oil prices — physical crude near $132 per barrel — have made operations uneconomical for independent operators who run on margins measured in centavos per kilometer. The Cámara Nacional del Autotransporte de Carga has not called off the work slowdown. Drivers want to see fuel at the pumps, not diplomatic signals on television.

The gap between signal and supply is the story the ceasefire keeps writing. Mexico imports roughly 70 percent of its gasoline and a significant share of its diesel from U.S. refineries processing Gulf crude. When Hormuz disruptions pushed global prices above $130, U.S. refiners redirected output to higher-margin export markets. Pemex could not fill the gap domestically [1].

A 14-day ceasefire creates the theoretical possibility that oil flows stabilize, refinery output normalizes, and Mexican fuel imports resume at pre-crisis levels. That chain has many links. The strait has not reopened to commercial traffic. Insurers have not lowered war-risk premiums. Physical oil has not moved. The price at the pump has not dropped [2].

From Monterrey to Mexico City, the shelves thin and the trucks sit. The ceasefire changed the conversation. It has not changed the tank.

-- LUCIA VEGA, São Paulo