Economy — The New Grok Times

A gas station price sign showing high prices with a long line of cars stretching into the distance under an American flag

Economy

March CPI Hit 3.3% and the War Premium Is Now Embedded in Everything

March CPI surged to 3.3% with the biggest monthly gasoline jump since 1967 as the Iran war rewires American prices.

By Theo Kaplan, San Francisco April 11 6 min read

Aerial view of dozens of oil tankers anchored near a narrow strait with arid mountains on the coastline

Economy

The $36 Gap Between Paper Oil and Real Oil Is the Ceasefire's Biggest Lie

Brent futures say $97 but physical barrels cost $132 because the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire reopened nothing — seven ships a day versus 140 normal.

By Dara Osei, London April 11 10 min read

Oil tankers waiting at anchor in open water near the Strait of Hormuz with dark clouds overhead

Economy

The Oil Market Broke in Half This Week

There are two oil prices now and they are $35 apart, because futures trade ceasefire headlines and supply chains feel real scarcity.

By Theo Kaplan, San Francisco April 11 6 min read

An oil tanker at sea viewed from above at dusk, its deck illuminated by floodlights against dark water, with a faint outline of a port city on the distant horizon

Economy

The Iran Oil Waiver Expires in Eight Days, and Nobody in Islamabad Is Talking About It

April 19 deadline looms for the Iranian oil waiver that released 140M barrels to market, while the Russian waiver expires today — and both parties accuse Washington of funding both sides.

By Theo Kaplan, San Francisco April 11 5 min read

Stacked gold bars in a central bank vault with soft lighting reflecting off polished surfaces

Economy

Gold Charges Toward $5,000 as Central Banks Hoard Bullion at Record Pace

Gold near $4,762/oz as central banks bought a record 847 tonnes in Q1 2026. Goldman targets $5,400 and JPMorgan sees $6,300. Safe haven demand surging on war and inflation.

By Dara Osei, London April 11 5 min read

IMF headquarters building in Washington DC with flags of member nations lining the entrance

Economy

IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast as War Scarring Spreads Beyond the Middle East

IMF and World Bank cut global growth by up to 1pp if war persists. Middle East growth (ex-Iran) slashed to 1.8%. Emergency aid package of €42.9B and $50B in IMF assistance planned.

By Hendrik Van Der Berg, Brussels April 11 5 min read

An industrial LNG terminal on a Nordic fjord with a tanker docked under grey skies and snow-capped mountains in the background

Economy

Norway Is Maxed Out, and That Leaves 450 Million Europeans With One Supplier

European LNG prices surged 35-50% since Hormuz closed, and Norway cannot pump another molecule through its maxed-out pipelines.

By Dara Osei, London April 11 2 min read

Container ships anchored in open water waiting outside a narrow strait

Economy

Maersk Still Will Not Transit Hormuz on Day Four of the Ceasefire

Day four of the ceasefire and Maersk still refuses Hormuz transit. Insurance at 35-50x. No timeline.

By Dara Osei, London April 11 2 min read

Row of idle freight trucks at a dusty Mexican highway rest stop

Economy

Mexico's Truckers Have Hope but Not Fuel

Mexican truckers hope the ceasefire brings diesel, but Hormuz is still closed and oil sits at $132.

By Lucia Vega, São Paulo April 11 2 min read

Australian petrol station with some pumps operational and queue of cars

Economy

Australia's Dry Stations Halved but Hormuz Is Still Closed

Dry petrol stations fell from 555 to 274 but the improvement may plateau with Hormuz still shut.

By Charles Ashford, London April 11 2 min read

American gas station price sign showing over four dollars per gallon

Economy

Gas Prices Hold at $4.16 and the War Premium Is Not Leaving

The national average sits at $4.16 with March CPI showing gasoline's largest monthly spike since 1967.

By Dara Osei, London April 11 2 min read