The Houthis have not fired on Red Sea shipping since the Iran war began on February 28. They have also not said they won't. [1]

Yemen's Iran-aligned militia maintains what analysts call a "conditional pause." Abed al-Thawr, a Yemeni military official, said in late March that "closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait" remains among the Houthis' primary options if the war escalates. [2] A senior Iranian source told Reuters that "if the situation gets out of control, Iran's allies will also close the Bab el-Mandeb." [1]

The restraint is strategic, not humanitarian. The Houthis fired a barrage at Israel on March 28, demonstrating they retain missile and drone capability. Major shipping lines — Maersk, CMA CGM — pulled out of the Red Sea corridor within days of the war's start. [2]

The dual-chokepoint scenario persists: Hormuz partially blocked by mines, Bab al-Mandeb one decision away from closure. If both shut simultaneously, approximately 35 percent of global seaborne oil would be stranded.

X reads the pause as proof Iran is sequencing its leverage. MSM covers the Houthis as a secondary story. The Bab al-Mandeb is not secondary. It is the second barrel.

-- YOSEF STERN, Jerusalem