The week ending April 11 delivered the market's verdict on three simultaneous pressures — and the verdict was resignation. The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent. The Nasdaq dropped 1.5 percent. The Dow shed 0.9 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.58 percent, their highest level since November [1].

March CPI came in at 3.3 percent year-over-year, above the 3.1 percent consensus. Core CPI held at 3.0 percent. The number killed remaining hopes for a June rate cut. Fed funds futures now price the first cut in December 2026, with meaningful probability the Fed holds all year [1].

The war premium is embedded. Brent crude closed at $97.40 after the ceasefire-driven selloff, but physical crude remains above $130. The $36 gap between futures and physical prices did not narrow this week [2]. Gas prices nationally averaged $4.16, with California above $5.89. Energy costs are flowing through to transportation, food, and services — the persistent inflation the CPI confirmed.

Gold closed at $2,410, up 3.1 percent for the week. Bitcoin fell below $70,000 Thursday before recovering to $71,200 [2].

The market's message is clear. The ceasefire did not change the economic reality. Rate relief is months away at best. And the war premium — in oil, in shipping, in insurance, in every price that touches the Strait of Hormuz — is no longer a shock. It is a cost of doing business in 2026.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco