The ceasefire announced on April 8 was supposed to ease things. It has not. Seven weeks after the Hormuz crisis began disrupting Middle Eastern shipping, Africa's fuel-importing nations are discovering that their problem is not diplomatic but physical — and physical supply chains do not respond to diplomatic timelines.

This paper reported Sunday on fuel rationing cascading across the continent, with prices up 40 to 50 percent across importing nations. The crisis has shifted from a price shock to a structural supply failure.

Kenya's Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority confirmed Monday that fuel stations in Nairobi, Mombasa, and several county capitals have experienced intermittent supply outages. [1] The government announced price stabilization measures, but stabilization here means subsidizing higher costs, not increasing supply. Kenya imports roughly 80 percent of its petroleum products, and the bulk arrives via tanker from Gulf refineries. Those tankers are still rerouting, still paying war-risk insurance premiums that have tripled since February. [1]

South Africa reduced its fuel levy for April to cushion consumers, but imported crude costs have risen faster than the levy cut can offset. [2] Eswatini, landlocked and entirely dependent on South African fuel pipelines, has reported rationing in rural areas. [1]

The structural dimension separates this from a price spike. A ceasefire cannot rebuild the insurance market for tanker traffic through the Arabian Sea, restore disrupted shipping schedules, or accelerate transit time from alternative suppliers. West African and Latin American crude takes weeks longer to reach East African ports than Gulf shipments. [1]

Nigeria's Dangote refinery has emerged as a partial buffer, increasing gasoline and urea exports to affected nations. [2] But its capacity cannot substitute for the volume the Gulf normally supplies to East and Southern Africa.

The fertilizer dimension compounds the fuel crisis on a longer timeline. Roughly 90 percent of Africa's fertilizer is imported from the Gulf. With shipping disrupted, planting seasons in Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia are proceeding with reduced inputs. [1] The food price consequences arrive in three to six months — a harvest-cycle delay invisible in today's headlines.

The war exposed the fragility. The ceasefire cannot repair it.

-- DARA OSEI, London