Global mergers and acquisitions exceeded $438 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with megadeals — transactions valued over $10 billion — hitting an all-time quarterly record. [1] Cross-border M&A rose 47% year-over-year to $454.7 billion, the highest first-quarter figure since records began. [1]

The headline number from the quarter is KKR's sale of CoolIT Systems, a data center liquid cooling company, to Ecolab for $4.75 billion — a 15-times return on KKR's 2023 investment. [2] The return itself is not unusual for private equity in a bull market. What is unusual is what happened to the approximately 600 factory workers at CoolIT's Calgary facility: every employee received a meaningful payout as part of the transaction structure. In an industry that typically distributes exit proceeds exclusively to investors and executives, the inclusion of hourly workers was notable enough to generate its own news cycle. [2]

The volume figures are striking given the macro backdrop. The Hormuz blockade has created significant energy price volatility; tariff uncertainty has complicated cross-border planning; and war has produced the kind of headline risk that has historically suppressed deal appetite. None of it is showing in the data. [1]

The explanation is probably simpler than geopolitical resilience. Corporate balance sheets are strong, financing conditions remain manageable, and AI infrastructure demand has created a class of assets — data centers, cooling systems, semiconductor supply chain components — that buyers want at essentially any price. The megadeal era, if that is what this is, appears to be driven less by animal spirits than by the specific economics of one technology cycle. [1]

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco