Wall Street's Biggest Banks Made Record Profits From the War — Their Reserve Builds Tell a Different Story
JPMorgan posted record $11.6B in trading revenue from war volatility — while quietly building $327M in credit reserves against the same war.
Economy
The IMF Called It a Close Call for a Global Recession — The Treasury Secretary Called It a Small Bit of Pain
IMF's World Economic Outlook warns 2.5% growth in the adverse scenario is a 'close call for recession.' Bessent told the BBC it's 'a small bit of pain.'
Oil Fell for a Second Day on Blockade — Markets Are Pricing a War That Ends, Not One That Escalates
WTI near $91-93 and Brent below $95 for a second straight session despite an active naval blockade — markets are pricing peace optionality, not escalation.
The World Poured $130 Billion Into BlackRock in One Quarter
BlackRock's Q1 saw record $130B net inflows, 46% profit growth, and AUM near $14T — investors are fleeing into managed money as war volatility spikes.
Bitcoin Dipped as Tax Day Forced $2.8 Billion in Crypto Selling
An estimated $2.8 billion in forced crypto liquidation hit markets ahead of today's IRS deadline, pushing Bitcoin's fear index to extreme fear at 12.
The Government Will Open a Portal to Refund $150 Billion in Unlawful Tariffs on April 20
CBP's CAPE portal opens April 20 to process $150-175 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds — the largest government repayment program in US history.
Insurance Markets Are Still Pricing the Blockade as Real Even as Oil Says It's Not
War risk premiums in the Gulf remain at 35–50 times pre-war levels; oil prices have eased on peace signals, creating a visible split between two industries reading the same war differently.