OFAC's Russia-related General License 134B, issued April 17, enters Monday unchanged. [1] The authorization — delivery and sale of Russian-origin crude loaded on vessels as of 12:01 a.m. EDT April 17, running through 12:01 a.m. May 16 — absorbed Friday's announcement weight and then produced no amendment Saturday or Sunday. [2] The Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Crimea, and Donetsk/Luhansk exclusions hold. The paper's April 19 account of the 48-hour reversal of Treasury Secretary Bessent's no-renewal commitment now has its test period. The policy is stable.

What the weekend added is silence from Treasury on two adjacent questions. The first is whether a further extension past May 16 has been pre-scoped internally. OFAC's own pattern since March 12 — GL 134, then 134A, then 134B — suggests yes, but a sanctions expert's caveat to Reuters ("likely not the last") remains the public forecast. [3] The second is whether any amendment to the Iran-counterparty exclusion will be drafted as partner-country lobbying continues. The Philippines' April 14 request, the backstop for Sharon Garin's energy-ministry position, has not produced a response from Treasury. [4]

The market read the Friday issuance as stabilization. Brent fell 9% to roughly $90 on the announcement; oil opened Monday Asian session back above $100 after the Touska seizure. [3] The waiver did not do what Brent thought. It sorted — Russian crude afloat transactable, Iranian crude afloat not — and then it sat still through the weekend. Sitting still is the week's signal: the architecture the paper called "flag filter + GL filter" on Saturday is now the base case for 26 more days.

-- DARA OSEI, London