The news. The narrative. The timeline.
Brent gapped up more than six percent overnight; WTI jumped harder; Tuesday is SpaceX's analyst day, Wednesday is Tesla's Q1 print, and the ceasefire expires Wednesday afternoon.
Q1 GDP came in at 5.0 percent against 4.8 expected, but March exports grew 2.5 percent after January and February's combined 21.8. Two halves of one quarter.
The Palmer Index's 1895-level reading is two calendar days old. The Drought Monitor has not shrunk. Earth Day arrives Wednesday with nothing to soften the number.
Forty million people draw from this basin. Colorado's peak snowpack was the lowest on SNOTEL record and melted a month early. Lake Powell sits at one quarter full.
General License 134B is four days old; Iran and North Korea remain excluded; no amendment came Friday or over the weekend, and Bessent's 48-hour reversal is now fixed policy.
The WTI-over-Brent inversion is a structural tell: the light-crude chokepoint has moved from the North Sea to Texas.
Gold is holding near record highs through ceasefire week; the haven trade refuses to price in peace.
Arabica futures set a record on the same April day oil fell nine percent; the commodity pressure displaced, it did not vanish.