American Airlines reports first-quarter 2026 results at 7:30 a.m. ET Thursday, April 23, with a webcast at 8:30. [1] Management's own March 17 guidance at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference pegged Q1 revenue growth at more than 10% year over year — the highest ever quarterly rate for the carrier excluding the pandemic-recovery period — on better-than-expected domestic demand and stronger unit revenue. The Zacks consensus is $13.81 billion in revenue and a 10.05% year-over-year increase, with a loss per share near $0.37. [2]

The paper's Tuesday brief flagged the April 9 guidance update: EPS range revised to a $0.10-$0.50 loss, below consensus, with the company expecting to land at the lower end of its previous range. [2] Wednesday's read: the swing factor remains fuel. CEO Robert Isom told investors in March that jet fuel rising to roughly $2.75 a gallon had produced a $400 million Q1 expense hit since January's print, with "likely an impact in the second quarter as well." [3] Total capacity is guided up 3-4% year over year, narrowed from 3-5%. Liquidity exits Q1 above $10 billion and unencumbered assets plus first-lien capacity above $25 billion.

The Thursday read: eight of American's top-ten revenue booking days and eight of its top-ten revenue weeks on record fell inside this quarter. If the commercial momentum prints as guided, Thursday is the first post-clock-scrap quarter from a consumer-discretionary balance sheet for which the war arrived as a line item. American is Exhibit A. United prints next week.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco