Block reports first-quarter 2026 results after the close today, and the two numbers that matter are already on the public record. Cash App's Bitcoin Ecosystem revenue will print at roughly $1.7 billion, and the company's own bitcoin holdings produced a $172.8 million GAAP remeasurement loss based on the March-31 closing price. [1] [2] Both figures were pre-announced on April 9, which is the disclosure-architecture choice that frames the call.

The paper's Wednesday standard on this print named the Cash App deceleration as the bar, with the bitcoin treasury as a balance-sheet question rather than an upside thesis. Today's tape arrives with the markdown number already booked and a 28,355-BTC corporate-and-customer position valued at about $2.2 billion as of March 31. [3] Block disclosed those holdings in a third-party-audited proof-of-reserves report on April 28 — a disclosure peers do not match.

The Cash App number is the operating story. Q4 2025 Cash App gross profit grew 33% year over year to $1.83 billion. [4] Square gross profit grew 7.5% to $992.7 million in the same quarter. The official Q1 guide is $2.80 billion in total gross profit, up 22% year over year, with adjusted operating income of $600 million and adjusted EPS of $0.67. [5] That EPS guide is a 45.5% step-down versus the Q1 2025 print of $0.55 — the optical headline outsiders will lead with even though the gross-profit acceleration story is what management has been selling for two quarters.

The two-track presentation is the point. Bitcoin trading volume on Cash App routes through GAAP revenue at a near-zero gross margin: $1.7 billion of buy volume produces almost no gross profit but dominates the top-line print. Block has been disaggregating Cash App Bitcoin Ecosystem revenue from the underlying business since 2023 specifically so the headline does not become the story. The April 9 pre-announcement was the company's attempt to push the conversation past it before earnings day. [2]

The treasury question is what X will key on. A $172.8 million remeasurement loss on a position the company chose to hold is a P&L hit that no operating decision could have avoided once the bitcoin price moved. The $2.2 billion gross position against a Q4 2025 net income of $115.7 million means a 10% bitcoin move can swamp a quarter of operating earnings either direction. [3] AInvest's coverage in April framed the treasury as "dead weight" against the operating business; the proof-of-reserves disclosure is Block's counter — it is treating the holding as a transparent balance-sheet item rather than a hidden bet.

Three things to watch on the call. First, Cash App primary banking actives. They were 9.3 million at year-end, growing 22% year over year. [4] If Q1 prints below 21% growth, the everyday-bitcoin product launch into a soft tape is the implicit explanation, and Square's 7.5% gross-profit growth becomes the steadier story by default. Second, MoneyBot — the AI agent Block is rolling out to its full Cash App customer base in the coming weeks. The deck has framed it as the engagement lever for 2026; analysts will press for measurable engagement deltas, not vision-statements. Third, the 4,000-employee restructuring announced in February. [6] CFO Amrita Ahuja has guided to first-half charges of $450 million to $500 million; the mix between Q1 and Q2 will tell the market how front-loaded the cost actions are.

The full-year guide — $12.20 billion in gross profit at 18% growth, $3.20 billion in adjusted operating income at 26% margin, $3.66 in adjusted EPS at 54% growth — was raised at the Q4 print. [5] A reaffirmation tonight is the floor. A raise is the upside surprise the buy-side has not priced in.

The bitcoin treasury is the show. The Square-versus-Cash-App split is the business.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco