The news. The narrative. The timeline.
Brent priced a deal in the morning and the threat in the afternoon; a $920M crude short hit 70 minutes before the Axios leak, and Treasury has not said anything about it.
Pakistan clears its IMF compliance review the day after Iran's response window opens, on the same calendar that funds its mediator role.
Aramco prints preliminary Q1 numbers Sunday with the dividend held flat and capex pinned at the upper end while Brent moves twice in 30 hours.
OFAC's Russia-only oil waiver expires May 16 — nine days from Thursday — eight days after Iran's response window opens.
Eurozone headline inflation jumped to 3 percent in April on a 10.9 percent energy print, and the ECB upgraded the Middle East war to dominant risk.