Lake Powell is at 23 percent of capacity. Spring inflow is running at 13 percent of normal. At a NOAA webinar on May 8, a federal hydrologist summarized conditions in three words: "No good news." [1]

This paper reported Tuesday that Powell had turned to Flaming Gorge Reservoir as a temporary water source — a bureaucratic maneuver that adds volume without changing the underlying supply picture. The inflow number explains why. At 13 percent of normal, the snowpack and runoff that historically refill Powell each spring are not arriving. The reservoir is not being drawn down faster than planned; it is not being refilled at anywhere near the rate the system assumed. [1]

The 23 percent figure is the stored-water number. The 13 percent figure is the supply number. Both are required to understand the system's trajectory. A reservoir at 23 percent on normal inflow is a problem with a recoverable path. A reservoir at 23 percent on 13 percent of normal inflow has a different math. The seven states that draw from the Colorado River compact — Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming — negotiate water allocations against a system that assumed supply levels that are not materializing. The hydrologist at the NOAA webinar did not say "no good news" as a rhetorical device. There was no good news to report. [1]

-- DARA OSEI, London