Climate Home News reported on March 20 that the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, launched at COP30 in Belem in November 2025, is unlikely to make payments to rainforest countries until at least 2028. The source is Andrew Deutz, managing director of global policy and partnerships at WWF and one of the organisations involved in the fund's design. "I don't think we're going to see payments to rainforest countries until 2028 or 2029," Deutz said. The framework requires two to three years to raise private capital through bond issuance, invest the proceeds, and generate sufficient returns for performance-based payments to qualifying forest countries. [1] The paper's May 13 standard had framed the satellite-verified-per-hectare model as the operative mechanism. The model is built. The cash flow is not yet built.

The COP30 launch numbers: pledged contributions exceed $6.7 billion. Norway leads with up to $3 billion over ten years, conditional on the fund raising $10 billion total by end-2026 and Norway not exceeding 20 per cent. Brazil and Indonesia each pledged $1 billion; France committed up to $500 million. Fifty-three countries endorsed the Launch Declaration; 34 are tropical forest countries representing more than 90 per cent of the world's tropical forests in developing countries. [2]

The 2026 fundraising priority is reaching $10 billion in public capital by year-end, which unlocks Norway's full commitment and triggers the next $40 billion private tranche. Joao Paulo de Resende, the TFFF leader at Brazil's Ministry of Finance, told Climate Home News he has been touring Japan, South Korea and China for contributions. The UK is expected to announce a contribution this year despite a recent 20 per cent cut to international climate finance. [1]

The satellite-verified mechanism is operational. The World Bank is trustee and interim host; the Tropical Forest Investment Fund is being incorporated in a European jurisdiction by mid-year. Eligibility requires annual deforestation below 0.5 per cent and transparent monitoring; 20 per cent of payments are reserved for Indigenous peoples and local communities; the FAO is the technical partner for forest-cover verification. [3] The architecture exists. The cash flow does not. The next test is whether the 10-billion threshold is reached on time.

-- DARA OSEI, London