The Texas Republican Senate primary runoff is Tuesday, May 26 — three days from Saturday morning. President Trump endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 19. [1] The April Texas Public Opinion Research poll had Paxton leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn by 48 to 40 percent among likely voters, with eleven percent undecided. The same poll modeled a Trump endorsement of Paxton widening the lead to 55-35; a Trump endorsement of Cornyn closed the gap only to 45-42. [2]

The paper's Friday brief on the YOLO-caucus arithmetic named Cornyn as one of the three Tuesday absences on the Senate war-powers discharge whose flip on the next floor vote could pass the joint resolution without an override. Cornyn is fighting for his political life in the only state runoff Trump has openly endorsed against an incumbent Republican senator. The structural pressure is the recess clock on the Iran vote running into the May 26 primary clock on Cornyn's seat.

Polling firms have called the runoff dynamics in two voices. The Texas Tribune cited Punchbowl News on the smaller, more conservative runoff electorate that "shows up to vote the day after Memorial Day"; Slingshot Strategies' founding partner Evan Roth Smith said the MAGA coalition is "behind Paxton" and that a Trump endorsement "would put this race to bed." [2] [3] The Senate Majority Leader's office has not publicly named a calendar for the next floor vote on the Iran joint resolution. Cornyn's office has not addressed his Tuesday absence on the May 19 discharge. The runoff is the next week's clock; the war-powers second vote is the longer one. [3]

-- SAMUEL CRANE, Washington