Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said oil market normalization will not occur before 2027, setting a price floor that conflicts with the optimistic ceasefire rhetoric driving recent market relief [1]. The assessment, reported by CNBC, places the structural timeline for Hormuz reopening at more than eighteen months from the war's February 28 start date.

Brent crude rose more than 3 percent at the Monday open, trading near $93.63 per barrel, as markets priced in weekend Gulf exchanges against continued Hormuz disruption [1]. The recovery reversed the previous session's loss, when Brent closed below $94 on negotiation optimism [1]. Analysts assess oil will likely remain between $90 and $100 per barrel until there is greater clarity on any lasting peace agreement [1].

The Aramco assessment conflicts with the diplomatic framing from both sides. The Associated Press reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative late-May agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and open nuclear talks, but President Trump has called for unspecified changes and Iranian officials have shown no public sign of agreeing [1]. If Nasser is right, the war's energy costs compound across 2026 and 2027 — a two-year disruption, not a months-long spike.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels