War's second-order effects hit African fuel prices and helium supply chains before mainstream media measures them in oil futures contracts.

The effects propagate through supply chains that connect conflict zones to African markets. Fuel prices in East and West Africa reflect shipping route disruptions, insurance premium increases, and refinery output shifts that originate thousands of miles from the conflict.

Helium supply chains face similar disruptions. Africa's helium production and distribution networks depend on stable supply from a limited number of global sources. Conflict-related shutdowns create shortages that affect medical imaging, industrial processes, and semiconductor manufacturing across the continent.

Mainstream media coverage focuses on oil futures and commodity indices that capture first-order effects. The second-order effects on African fuel prices and helium availability reach consumers weeks or months later, often without visible connection to the originating conflict.

For African economies dependent on imported fuel and industrial gases, the second-order effects create inflationary pressure that outlasts the conflict itself.

-- LUCIA VEGA, Nairobi

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