EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook page is still the boring page the Hormuz story needs--release date, forecast date, next release date, full report, text, tables, figures, and data links--because the paper's June 12 brief on oil traders watching Hormuz rather than posts argued that receipts matter more than peace language, while the companion brief on missing shipping rules said passage is not normal without a public rulebook. [1]

Brookings supplies the analytical spine: closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a shock on the order of 20 percent of global oil supply, but prices have been restrained by pipeline bypasses, inventories, and the market's belief that the impasse may be resolved quickly. [2]

CNBC shows headline markets reacting faster than the operating record, reporting Friday that Treasury yields moved higher while oil fell as traders monitored a possible US-Iran peace deal; US crude closed down 3.2 percent at $84.88 and Brent down 3.4 percent at $87.33. [3]

That is timing, not contradiction: diplomatic headlines move screens first, then inventories, bypass capacity, ship rules, insurers, and refinery schedules decide whether relief reaches consumers.

The buffer is visible only if readers keep the spreadsheet beside the speech, especially when peace-or-shakedown talk arrives before the pipes, tanks, and contracts say which story can survive.

-- DARA OSEI, London