Treasury yields edged higher Friday as traders watched whether a U.S.-Iran peace deal would hold, CNBC reported [1]. That is the market's second sentence after relief. The first sentence was the rally. The second asks what oil, yields, inflation inputs, and equity supply can still punish if the paper behind the rally remains unfinished.

The paper's June 12 major on markets retesting the Iran rally without a signed deal argued that prices had moved before settlement terms, ship movement, or insurance behavior arrived. Saturday's version is more mechanical. CNBC reported Friday that traders monitored yields around Iran-deal prospects [1], while its premarket file kept investors watching the day's setup beyond the diplomatic headline [2].

Oil remains the hinge. The memo stack records CNBC reporting WTI down 3.2 percent at $84.88 and Brent down 3.4 percent at $87.33 after the peace headline, but with losses pared after Trump disputed Iranian terms. The point is not that lower oil proves peace. It is that lower oil prices show exactly where hope entered the tape before shippers, insurers, and governments produced an operating rule.

Producer prices keep the rally honest. Friday's market checklist was not only a war file; it sat beside inflation and rate expectations [2]. The paper's June 12 brief on producer prices keeping energy tail risk said input-price relief can disappear quickly when the energy story still runs through Gulf risk. That warning survives a one-day oil decline.

SpaceX adds a second kind of supply. CNBC's Saturday market review said the successful SpaceX debut wiped away a week of anxiety [3]. The paper's June 12 story on SpaceX's first public trade pricing the Musk stack treated that debut as first-trade arithmetic, not merely enthusiasm. Public-market supply matters because investors were not only pricing war relief; they were also absorbing one of the largest new growth stories on the board [3].

The divergence is useful because both sides are tempted to overstate. Mainstream market coverage can turn a move into a mood: relief, caution, risk-on. A social-media reading can turn the same move into gullibility or vindication. The paper asks for the instrument. What did oil do? What did yields do? What did producer prices imply? What new equity supply did investors absorb? What ship rule made any of it durable?

The sober answer is that markets priced possibility before proof. They are allowed to do that. Investors buy probabilities, not notarized treaties. Readers should not confuse that with settlement. Until Hormuz has public rules and oil's decline survives the next contradiction, the rally remains a trade on hope, not a receipt for peace.

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco