Texas does not need a named storm to flood, and WPC's Monday Day 1 outlook put Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall over much of the Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas, with moisture deep enough for 3-inch-per-hour rates and local cells near 5 inches per hour. [1]

The paper's June 14 brief on Gulf rain without a named-storm story said roads can flood before the atmosphere earns a name, and Monday sharpens that point because WPC says training storms could affect the corridor from Brownsville through Houston, with localized totals perhaps approaching 8 inches where bands stall. [1]

Day 2 keeps the task alive by extending a Moderate Risk across the entire Texas Gulf Coast, and WPC says Houston remains particularly vulnerable as onshore flow continues to train storms over coastal areas. [2]

NHC's tropical outlook is quieter, giving the northwestern Gulf trough only a low 20 percent formation chance through 48 hours and 30 percent through seven days while still warning that heavy rain, flash flooding, and gusty winds are possible across eastern and southern Texas and Louisiana. [3]

Those are not rival forecasts but different public jobs, since one names a cyclone and the other keeps people out of water-covered roads, so MSM and X can keep asking whether a storm forms while the useful question is where water goes today.

-- DARA OSEI, London