Brent crude futures with November expiry traded 3.2 percent higher at $90.90 a barrel Monday morning after U.S. forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island and Iran answered at two American bases in Jordan. [1] West Texas Intermediate rose 3.5 percent to $86.28 on the same print. [1] By the close, September Brent had settled 2.7 percent higher at $90.49 and WTI 2.8 percent higher at $85.76. [2] The morning jump is the market's first answer. The close is the one that held.
Sunday's paper had named a live tension: Pezeshkian's admission that missiles were "of no use" against Goldman Sachs and Kpler data showing Gulf oil flows recovered to roughly 70 percent of prewar levels. Monday's tape does not erase that recovery. It reprices the risk that the recovery depended on a quiet strait. The quiet ended.
Independent hull counts already sat well below the ceasefire average. Tanker Trackers said Sunday that the past seven days' daily average of crude exports via Hormuz was 3.8 million barrels, against 9.8 million during the formal ceasefire, with Iranian crude exports at zero for some time. [3] A 3 percent oil rally on top of a waterway running at roughly 40 percent of its ceasefire pace is not a surprise. It is arithmetic.
Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said supply risk "will persist and oil inventories will continue to deplete in the coming weeks and months," and that "the Iranian crisis has likely changed the security status quo in the Middle East." [2] Goldman, in a note carried by CNBC, said rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched refining capacity and pushed product margins to new highs. [2] Crude is the headline. Products are where a Hormuz war collects rent.
The two CNBC prints also disagree about which contract is the story. The strike roundup quoted November Brent at $90.90 in the morning. [1] The dedicated oil story quoted September Brent settling at $90.49. [2] That is not a contradiction so much as a reminder that "oil jumped 3 percent" is a family of numbers. Front-month and second-month both moved. Both stayed above $90. The recovery narrative of last week was a flow story. Monday was a risk story layered on top of a still-thin strait.
Iran's Guard said a supertanker caught fire in the southern lane after hitting two naval mines. [1][3] Iranian state television did not identify the vessel or its crew. [3] That is a physical premium, not a sentiment one. CENTCOM's Hawkins statement, carried in both CNBC pieces, said U.S. forces remain prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through the waterway. [1][2] Commerce that is running at 3.8 million barrels a day against a 9.8 million ceasefire baseline is already not free in any market sense. [3] Whether Monday's spike holds through the week depends on whether the next hull transits or burns. The recovery narrative had five days. The market used one session to mark it down.
-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels