Hurricane Lowell Advisory 42, issued 5 a.m. HST Sunday, read: maximum sustained winds 125 mph, a Category 3; minimum central pressure 943 millibars; center near 14.7 north, 163.8 west, about 580 miles south-southwest of Lihue; moving north-northwest at 6 mph. [1] A Tropical Storm Warning went into effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau. [1] A Hurricane Warning went into effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. [1] Saturday's file read 160, then 155, with no watches on the day watches were promised. Sunday morning read 125 with the paperwork finally posted — and Sunday night rewrote it again.
The peak is history; print it as history. Advisory 36's 160 mph was Friday evening's measurement. [1] Advisory 37's 155 was the overnight dip. [1] Advisory 42's 125 is the live number — two full categories below the peak, pressure up to 943, the eye's ragged trend extended into a genuine weakening. [1] Weather accounts will file Iniki 2.0 from Category 5 and a Kauai rainfall line. The record files a major hurricane getting less major by the advisory. Do not lead with 160 as live. Do not let the peak eat the present.
The turn is the other half of the advisory. The general westward crawl is over; Lowell moves north-northwest at six, beginning the sharp turn the forecast promised for Sunday, on a track aimed just west of Kauai and Niihau. [1][3] Hawaii News Now, updating through the turn, has the islands under both Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings and warns that outside preparations grow difficult or dangerous as tropical-storm-force winds approach — the standard language that means the clock for readying is nearly out. [3] The Associated Press led Sunday with the tropical storm warning for Kauai and Niihau under a NOAA satellite image of the storm approaching. [2] Turn plus warnings plus a weakening core: the three things Saturday lacked, arriving together.
What the warnings mean, in the advisory's own definitions: a Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the area, typically issued 36 hours before tropical-storm-force winds begin. [1] A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical-storm conditions are expected, same lead time. [1] For the monument waters — Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals — the hurricane warning covers mostly wildlife refuge ocean, where expected conditions threaten operations and vessels rather than towns. [1] For Kauai County, the tropical storm warning covers the home islands of Kauai and Niihau and everyone on them. Different water, different stakes, same advisory. By Sunday night the county's stake rose with the warning level: hurricane conditions expected, preparations to be rushed to completion, the turn carrying the storm north-northeastward toward the western islands at ten miles an hour. [4]
Monday and Monday night remain the window the track has pointed at for days: closest approach to the westernmost main islands. [1] Then came Advisory 45, issued 11 p.m. HST Sunday: Lowell moving north-northeastward at 10 mph and approaching the western islands — center 16.5 north, 163.2 west, about 455 miles southwest of Lihue — with maximum sustained winds down to 115 mph and a Hurricane Warning now in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, the morning's Tropical Storm Warning removed in the correction. [4] Weaker and closer: 125 to 115 across the day, 580 miles to 455, tropical-storm warning to hurricane warning. [1][4] Rainfall and surf hazards carry forward from Saturday's file; totals update with later advisories. Residents were told to rush preparations to completion. [3][4] Saturday's promised watch day produced no watch. Sunday produced the real thing, then upgraded it. Print the latest advisory. Archive the peak. Archive the peak. The season's discipline holds: advisories are numbered, strengths are measured, warnings are posted or they are not. Thirty-six gave 160, thirty-seven gave 155, forty-two gave 125 with paper, forty-five gave 115 with more paper. [1][4] The storm tells the truth every six hours. The paper's job is to print the latest one and forget the loudest one.
-- DARA OSEI, London