The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline crossed $4.00 Monday, according to AAA — the first time since 2022 and thirty days into a war that has added one dollar per gallon to the price Americans pay to commute, run a business, or heat a home with fuel oil. [1] [2]

The trajectory is precise. On February 27, the day before the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran, the national average stood at $2.98. The AAA weekly data shows the progression: $3.02 in early March, $3.50 by March 9, $3.72 by mid-month, $3.96 by March 23, and now $4.00. [1]

This paper reported the $3.98 milestone last week as the moment the war became a number on every gas station sign in America. The number changed by two cents. The story did not. [2]

The $4 threshold carries symbolic weight disproportionate to the increment. It is the number Americans use to mark energy crises: $4 in the 2008 financial crisis, $4 in the 2022 Ukraine shock. Both prior instances were associated with political consequences — falling approval ratings, recession narratives, congressional pressure. The current administration's response to the gas price question has been the same as its response to the protest question: studied indifference. [3]

The summer driving season has not begun. AAA and GasBuddy both project the national average will approach $4.50 before the July peak if the Hormuz disruption holds and oil remains above $100. At that level, the annual gasoline expenditure for the average American household rises by roughly $1,800 compared with pre-war. That is the war's domestic tax, paid in cash at the pump, with no congressional vote. [1] [2]

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels