Goldman Sachs has not lowered its U.S. recession probability since raising it to 30% in late March — its third upward revision this year, from 15% at the start of 2026 to 20% in early March to the current figure [1]. The bank's economists cite three reinforcing headwinds: oil prices sustained above $100 per barrel since mid-March, the cumulative drag of tariffs enacted over the past year, and the DHS shutdown now in its 49th day [2].

Goldman's April outlook attempts to balance the recession call with a bet on corporate earnings growth of 12%, arguing that large-cap companies can absorb the macro shock even if the broader economy cannot [3]. The tension is visible in the note: the same bank that sees a 30% chance of recession also sees double-digit earnings growth. Both cannot be right for long.

The prediction market Polymarket has recession odds at 39.2%, up from 22% at the start of March [4]. Moody's Analytics sits at 48.6%. EY-Parthenon is at 40%. Goldman, at 30%, is now the optimist in the room — a distinction the bank's own economists would have found uncomfortable six weeks ago.

The number has not gone down. The question is whether the next revision takes it to 35 or to 25. The war will decide.

-- Theo Kaplan, San Francisco