TL;DR
Goldman's initial $25-$32/bbl war premium estimate has been revised upward twice; with oil above $100, the original range looks like the lower bound of a widening forecast.
MSM Perspective
Reuters and TheStreet covered Goldman's March 23 upward revision; the pattern of serial underestimation — three revisions in one month — has not been the analytical frame.
X Perspective
X's finance community is treating Goldman's evolving forecasts as a live document of institutional underestimation — each revision arriving just after the market has already moved past it.
When the Iran war began on February 28, Goldman Sachs estimated the conflict would add a war premium of $25 to $32 per barrel above the pre-war baseline. WTI was at $67. Goldman was saying the war was worth $92-$99 oil. [1] [2]
It is now worth $102 oil, and Goldman has revised upward three times. On March 3, Goldman described the disruption as equivalent to a Libyan supply loss. On March 20, the bank said oil could surge past record highs if the disruption persisted. On March 23, it raised its 2026 Brent average forecast by $8 to $85 per barrel and projected Brent would average $110 through March and April. That March-April average implies prices above current levels are expected to persist, not retreat. [1] [2] [3]
This paper reported Goldman's original $25-$32 estimate when it was the market's governing analytical frame. The estimate was useful precisely because it gave traders a number. A premium that can be quantified can be traded, hedged, and eventually resolved. What three upward revisions in thirty days tell you is that the number keeps moving faster than the institution can model it. [1]
The pattern matters beyond Goldman specifically. Investment banks are paid to model risk, and the most sophisticated energy desk on Wall Street has underestimated this war's oil market impact three times in a month. The market itself has been ahead of Goldman at each inflection point — oil reached $100 before Goldman said it might, held above $100 after Goldman said it could retreat, and is now at $102 with Goldman projecting $110 Brent as an average, not a peak. [3]
The $25-$32 war premium now looks like a conservative baseline for a conflict that has expanded from airstrikes to a three-front war with Houthi missile attacks and a minefield in the Strait of Hormuz. The original range was built on a model of a limited war. The war is not limited. The premium is not $32. It is whatever is embedded in $102 WTI, $107 Brent, and 4-10 percent insurance premiums — and it shows no sign of resolving before Goldman issues its fourth revision.
-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco
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