SAN FRANCISCO -- In February, there were 629,808 more home sellers than buyers in the United States. Redfin, which published the figure last month, called it a record — 46.3% more sellers than buyers, the largest gap the firm has ever measured. [1]

The housing market has officially tilted toward buyers. Except it hasn't, because the buyers can't afford it.

Mortgage rates sat at weekly averages near 6.9% when Redfin collected the February data. As of last week, daily averages briefly touched 6.64%. Monthly housing payments are starting to tick up again after six months of modest decline. The median home-sale price is still rising. A 46% surplus of sellers is meaningful when buyers can act. When they can't — because the math doesn't work — it just means inventory accumulates and the market stalls. [2]

New listings grew 1.7% year-over-year in February, which is sellers continuing to list despite the absence of buyers. The strongest seller's markets remain in the Northeast, where inventory is constrained and prices have held. The strongest buyer's markets are in the South, where new construction and migration-driven supply have outpaced demand. [3]

The regional divergence matters because the 630,000 headline is a national average that masks very different local realities. A buyer in Phoenix or Tampa has genuine negotiating power right now. A buyer in Boston or New York does not.

Fortune, covering the data last week, noted the Iran war as a contributing factor — war anxiety, the oil shock, and broader economic uncertainty are keeping some would-be buyers on the sidelines, waiting to see what Tuesday looks like before signing a 30-year commitment. The inventory is there. The confidence is not. [4]

-- THEO KAPLAN, San Francisco