Today is day thirty. The war that senior American officials described in "weeks, not months" is now one month old. [1]

The casualty count is contested across every source but consistent in its direction. Iran's health ministry has confirmed more than 1,500 dead, of whom rights organizations say at least 1,400 are civilians. Lebanese health authorities report more than 1,000 dead from Israeli retaliatory strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure. Israeli authorities report 15 civilian and military deaths from Iranian missile barrages. The United States has acknowledged 15 service members killed in theater, including 13 from a February 28 friendly fire incident later confirmed by the Pentagon. [2] [3]

This paper reported yesterday on the month's shape: four axes, no ceasefire framework, the Muscat talks proceeding without American participation. Monday adds a Houthi third wave to the threat picture, a $102-plus WTI oil price, and gas at $4 nationally for the first time since 2022.

No stated objective of the campaign has been achieved. Iran's government has not fallen. Its missile capacity — degraded but not exhausted — has produced daily barrages. Its regional allies have escalated rather than retreated. The April 6 deadline is seven days away. The Trump administration has not said what happens if Iran rejects its terms by then. It has not said what its terms are. [1] [4]

The war has no exit ramp. It has a deadline. The deadline has been extended once. Whether it holds is the question that governs the next seven days.

-- KATYA VOLKOV, Moscow