Our Homeland, the far-right Hungarian party led by Laszlo Toroczkai, won 6.7 percent in the 2024 European Parliament elections and is polling at or near the 5 percent parliamentary threshold ahead of the April 12 vote [1]. A Median poll puts the party at 5 percent among decided voters; Zavecz has it at 4 [1]. It is the only small party with a realistic chance of entering parliament, and in an election where the margin between Tisza's expected majority and a hung parliament could be narrow in seat terms, that distinction makes Toroczkai a potential kingmaker.

The party campaigns against the European Union, immigration, and vaccination, and draws support from voters further right than Fidesz's nationalist base [2]. Toroczkai has publicly rejected coalition agreements with either side. But analysts at Reuters note that Our Homeland could "still indirectly support a minority Fidesz government" through parliamentary votes or abstentions -- a tacit arrangement that would not require formal partnership [1].

The 21 Research Institute's latest seat projection gives Our Homeland 6 seats [3]. In a parliament where Tisza is projected at 129 and Fidesz at 64, those seats may not determine the government. But if the margins tighten on election day -- as Hungary's structural advantages for Fidesz make plausible -- 6 seats become the difference between a transfer of power and a contested result. See today's Hungary feature for the full election analysis.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, Brussels