The national average price of regular unleaded gasoline stood at $3.95 per gallon on Monday, according to GasBuddy data, and is expected to breach $4 this week — the first time the national average has hit that level since August 2022 [1].

The surge represents a full dollar increase in a single month. On February 26, the national average was $2.98. In 36 states, prices were below $3 per gallon. That era is over. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan reported Monday that prices rose 2.4 cents over the past week alone, with diesel averaging even higher at $4.99 in many markets.

The East Coast crossed $4 weeks ago. Stations in California, New York, and Connecticut have been charging well above $4 since mid-March, with California averaging $5.35. The national average, which aggregates cheaper interior states like Oklahoma and Kansas, has simply taken longer to catch up.

The price trajectory tracks crude oil almost perfectly. WTI's move above $100 translates mechanically to pump prices, with a typical lag of one to two weeks. If crude remains at current levels, AAA projects the national average could reach $4.25 to $4.50 by mid-April.

The political implications are immediate. Trump entered office with gas prices at multi-year lows, a key talking point. The administration has released strategic petroleum reserve barrels and temporarily suspended Iranian oil sanctions, but neither measure has arrested the climb. Consumers are now paying war prices at the pump.

In January, gas was below $3 in 42 states. That was three months ago.

-- HENDRIK VAN DER BERG, New York